SBP faces hike-or-hold call as October inflation nears 10%
Brokerage forecasts put October inflation near 10% on fuel, power and food costs, while Growth Securities and AKD disagree on whether the SBP should hike or hold on 26 October.
Headline inflation is expected to reach about 10% in October 2026, with average inflation over the first four months of FY27 seen at 10.2%.
Growth Securities cites higher electricity, petrol and food costs and sees a possible 50–100 basis point policy rate rise at the 26 October MPC meeting.
Average petrol is projected at Rs396.06 a litre after a 5.5% monthly rise; wheat, chicken, pulse gram and garlic prices are also forecast higher.
AKD Securities argues remittances, exports, record reserves and a $3 billion Eurobond support holding the policy rate steady.
Growth sees FY27 average inflation at 9–9.5%; AKD raised its FY27 inflation forecast to 9.1% and pushed assumed easing to April 2027.