Iran war hits energy, trade; IMF sees 1.3% fall in 2026

The fund sees oil exporters under greater strain than oil importers, and projects 6.6% growth in 2027 if the conflict eases in early 2027.

The IMF expects output in the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan to shrink 1.3% in 2026.

The fund links the drop to the war involving Iran, which has hurt energy output, shipping, tourism and trade.

Oil exporters face greater pressure than oil importers, which the IMF says have proved more resilient.

Regional output is projected to grow 6.6% in 2027, if the conflict eases in early 2027 as the baseline assumes.

The IMF warned the outlook carries exceptionally high uncertainty.

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