IMF projects 1.3% output drop for Pakistan and MENA in 2026

The fund expects a 6.6 percent rebound in 2027 if the conflict eases early, but output in many affected economies will stay below pre-war projections.

The IMF projects output for the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan to shrink 1.3% in 2026.

The fund blames disruption to energy, shipping, tourism and trade linked to the war against Iran.

Oil exporters face more pressure than oil importers, which the IMF says have proved more resilient.

A 6.6% rebound is forecast for 2027, but output is expected to stay below pre-war levels.

The IMF warned of exceptionally high uncertainty and urged policymakers to prioritise price stability.

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