In Pakistan economy news today, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmad said sustained, prudent macroeconomic policies and structural reforms have made the economy more resilient to domestic and external shocks. He set out that assessment while meeting foreign investors from major global institutions on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, from 12 to 17 October, according to an SBP statement issued on Saturday.
Investor meetings in Bangkok
Senior executives from JP Morgan, Citibank, Jefferies, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Bank of America, MSCI, Standard Chartered and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group attended the sessions. The governor also met bilateral and multilateral partners, other central banks and global credit rating agencies. For readers following Pakistan economy news today, the briefings focused on an improving macroeconomic outlook after several difficult years.
Growth, inflation and the SBP’s outlook
Mr Ahmad said inflation had slowed sharply from elevated levels in FY23 to almost within the target range in FY26, even after a significant oil price shock. Real GDP growth, after contracting in FY23, had risen gradually to 3.7% in FY26 and was projected to range between 3.5% and 4.5% in FY27. That SBP governor economic outlook framed recovery as gradual rather than abrupt.
He also said Pakistan’s fiscal position had strengthened, with the primary fiscal balance — the budget balance before interest payments — posting a third consecutive annual surplus in FY26. As a result, he said, the public debt-to-GDP ratio had been declining. An IMF staff-level agreement, he added, reflected continued reform implementation, which had improved investor confidence, supported sovereign credit rating upgrades and helped Pakistan access global capital markets despite a challenging global environment.
Reserves, forex and external accounts
SBP foreign exchange buffers have strengthened considerably, he said, with official reserves recovering from less than $3 billion in February 2023 to $21.5 billion by 9 October. Forward liabilities — future dollar obligations the central bank had booked — fell from over $5.7 billion to less than $1 billion. Central bank dollar purchases largely drove those gains, while the external debt stock rose only marginally over the past three years.
Those purchases were helped by an almost balanced current account in FY26. Regulatory reforms, especially for exchange companies and measures that encourage remittances through formal channels, had improved interbank forex liquidity, he said. “Forex purchases are expected to continue, with the current account deficit projected to remain within 0-1pc of GDP in FY27,” he said.
Timeline: what has happened so far
- February 2023: Official reserves stood at less than $3 billion.
- FY23: Inflation was elevated and real GDP contracted.
- FY26: Inflation moved almost within the target range; real GDP growth reached 3.7%; the current account was almost balanced; the primary fiscal balance recorded a third consecutive annual surplus.
- 9 October: Official reserves reached $21.5 billion; forward liabilities were under $1 billion.
- 12–17 October: The governor met investors and partners in Bangkok during the IMF-World Bank meetings.
- Saturday: The SBP issued its statement on the meetings and the economic assessment.
Aasan alfaaz mein
State Bank ke governor Jameel Ahmad ne kaha hai ke Pakistan ki maeeshat ab pehle se zyada mazboot hai, andar aur bahir ke jhatkon ke liye. Unhon ne bataya ke mehengai FY23 ke muqable mein kaafi kam ho chuki hai aur FY26 mein growth 3.7 percent rahi. Dollar ke zakheere $21.5 billion tak pohonch gaye hain, jo pehle bohat kam thay. Yeh baat unhon ne Bangkok mein bade international investors se mulaqaton mein kahi.
