Nasir Jamal writes in Dawn’s Business and Finance Weekly of 12 October that Pakistan earned $30.14 billion from goods exports in the year to June 2026. That was 5.9 percent less than the $32.04 billion of the year before. Imports rose 8.1 percent to $69.76 billion, so exports paid for 43 percent of what the country bought abroad. The trade deficit was $39.6 billion.
The same pattern this quarter
In the first quarter of this fiscal year, Jamal writes, exports rose 10.8 percent to $8.42 billion and imports rose 13.2 percent to $19.22 billion. The deficit grew 15 percent to $10.79 billion. He says goods exports have stayed in a band of roughly $25 billion to $30 billion for almost two decades, against Bangladesh above $50 billion and Vietnam above $350 billion. With a GDP of about $452 billion, Pakistan’s goods exports are under 7 percent of output.
Textiles, and an 8 percent idea
Textiles and apparel brought in $18 billion in FY26, about 60 percent of exports, and grew 0.3 percent while other exports fell. Finished goods are 83 percent of the sector, up from 77 percent in FY22, mostly knitwear, bedwear and plain garments. The EU, the United States and the UK take about three-quarters of textile exports. The US alone is about a fifth of all Pakistani exports.
Jamal lists costs exporters already cite: high energy and financing, tax paid in advance, refunds that arrive late, and tariffs on imported inputs. A business figure in Lahore has proposed a rebate of up to 8 percent against eligible domestic taxes if manufactured exports rise at least 10 percent a year. Jamal’s illustration, from an $18 billion textile base, is about $19.8 billion in the first year, $20.7 billion in the second and about $23.4 billion in the third, roughly $5.4 billion above the FY26 baseline. He says those are projections, not a promise, and that eligibility would have to rest on verified receipts.
He notes that early in September the finance ministry raised $3 billion in a two-part Eurobond: $1.75 billion for five and a half years at 7.5 percent, and $1.25 billion for ten years at 7.9 percent, with orders near $6 billion. State Bank reserves were $21.4 billion by 11 September, with import cover above three months for the first time since 2020. His comparison: a bond has to be repaid, while a rebate is a one-time cost on dollars that stay. He adds that a rebate does not fix power tariffs, interest rates or delayed refunds.
