The HBL Pakistan Manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.8 in October from 50.9 in September, its weakest reading in six months, according to the seasonally adjusted survey compiled by S&P Global. The index stayed above the 50.0 line that separates expansion from contraction, pointing to only a slight improvement in factory operating conditions.
Prices and cost pressures
Survey respondents reported a sharp rise in input costs, with input-price inflation reaching its highest level since the series began in May 2024. Firms mainly blamed dearer raw materials, especially fuel and fabrics. Manufacturers passed more of those costs on to buyers, lifting selling prices at the fastest pace since April. The findings underline pressure on industry from elevated energy prices and ongoing disruptions linked to the Middle East.
Orders, jobs and confidence
New orders returned to growth after contracting in September, helped by better product quality and a pickup in domestic demand. Export orders, however, fell for the first time in six months and posted their sharpest drop in more than a year, as higher prices and regional disruptions weighed on overseas demand. Employment levels declined for the first time since May as firms tried to contain costs amid intensifying input-price pressures.
Humaira Qamar, Head of Equities & Research at HBL, said business confidence had softened to a three-month low as inflation worries and higher raw-material costs weighed on demand expectations. She warned that the sharp rise in price pressures raised concerns about possible second-round inflationary effects. Against that backdrop, she said the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP, the country’s central bank) measured 50-basis-point rate hike to 12.0% reflected a prudent balance between firmer activity and persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. She added that monetary policy was likely to stay data-dependent, with upcoming inflation readings a key guide to the path ahead.
Timeline: what has happened so far
- May 2024 — Collection of HBL Pakistan Manufacturing PMI data began.
- September — The index stood at 50.9; new orders contracted.
- October — The index slipped to 50.8, a six-month low; input-price inflation hit its highest level since May 2024; export orders fell for the first time in six months; employment declined for the first time since May.
Aasan alfaaz mein
October mein Pakistan ke factories ka PMI 50.8 par aa gaya, jo chheh mahine ki sab se kam reading hai. Abhi bhi yeh 50 se upar hai, matlab kaam thora behtar chal raha hai, lekin raw material aur fuel mehengay ho rahe hain. Factories ne customeron se zyada qeematain li hain, aur kuch jagah naukriyan kam hoi hain. Is ka matlab hai ke kai cheezein mehengi ho sakti hain aur factory workers ke liye pressure barh sakta hai.
