Oil price news today in Pakistan is closely tied to a sharper economic slowdown. Official data show the economy grew 2.0% in the quarter ended June, the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics said on Monday. The Middle East crisis, which has disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, pushed up energy costs and cut regular supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar, leaving growth well below analyst expectations.
Growth slows and industry contracts
Growth in April to June was more than twice as slow as the 4.42% recorded in January to March. It also fell short of the 3.5% that a survey of economists had expected. For the full fiscal year that ended in June, the statistics office now puts GDP growth, which measures the total value of goods and services produced, at 3.65%. That is slightly below the 3.70% it had estimated earlier.
The weakness was concentrated in industry, which contracted by 4.7% in the fourth quarter. Agriculture and services each grew by more than 3.5% over the same period. The full-year figure held up because only the final quarter was seriously affected by high energy costs.
LNG supply and the winter outlook
Pakistan sourced 99% of its LNG imports from Qatar last year, under term contracts, meaning long-term supply agreements. This year it has had to rely on spot purchases, which are short-term cargoes bought at prevailing prices. Those purchases have raised the cost of power generation and could push the import bill above $1 billion to secure LNG for the coming months, the head of the state-owned LNG importer has said.
The same official said last week that Pakistan faces a challenging winter with possible natural gas shortages, because LNG flows from Qatar and the UAE through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely disrupted. The energy shock is also putting pressure on the budget. Pakistan is in an IMF programme, a lending arrangement with the International Monetary Fund that requires careful fiscal management.
On the crude side, reports say global oil prices have moved sharply in recent weeks, rising on fresh attacks in the region and easing on hopes of more supply. Reports also say some Saudi crude flows through the strait have risen, even as overall shipping traffic has fallen further. These reports have not been confirmed by official sources.
Timeline: what has happened so far
- January to March (FY2026): GDP growth of 4.42%.
- April to June, the fourth quarter of FY2026: growth slowed to 2.0%, with industry down 4.7%.
- Fiscal year ended June: full-year growth put at 3.65%, down from the earlier 3.70% estimate.
- Last week: the head of the state-owned LNG importer warned of possible winter gas shortages.
Aasan alfaaz mein
Pakistan ki economy April se June ke quarter mein sirf 2.0% barhi, jo pichle quarter se kaafi kam hai. Hormuz mein disruption se gas aur fuel ki qeemat barhi hai aur industry 4.7% sikar gayi. Sardiyon mein gas ki kami ka khatra hai, jis ka asar gharon aur factories dono par pad sakta hai. Petrol aur diesel ke naye rates ke liye official notification zaroor dekhein.
