Production at Pakistan’s Reko Diq copper-gold mine could start in 2030 instead of 2028, according to government sources and industry insiders who link a possible Reko Diq project delay to security conditions in Balochistan and wider Middle East tensions, including conflict involving neighbouring Iran.
Canadian miner Barrick Mining, which holds a 50 per cent stake, has not issued an official new launch date. Company and government officials did not immediately comment when asked. Local company officials nonetheless say the multibillion-dollar venture remains viable, and Barrick is expected to restart full-scale development by mid-2027 after an internal review.
Why the timeline is under review
Investors have reportedly adjusted the earlier 2028 production target while waiting for clearer security improvements. In February 2026, Barrick began a formal review, slowed development work, and extended its assessment into early 2027.
Speaking last month at the Mining Forum Americas, Barrick’s chief executive said the firm was revisiting the schedule because it needs “some sort of security improvement” before committing to a full construction timetable. Despite the pause on a full build, company sources say day-to-day activity continues, including research, administration and community programmes.
Jobs, spending and ownership
Project managers have kept all 700 permanent staff and roughly 2,000 contractual workers on site, though some third-party service contracts were allowed to lapse. An official familiar with the venture said nearly $1 billion has already been invested and argued that external shocks may postpone work but are unlikely to force an exit by either the miner or the government.
Barrick’s half of the project is matched by a remaining 50 per cent shared equally between the Balochistan government and three federal entities: Pakistan Petroleum, Oil and Gas Development Company, and Government Holdings Private. Phase 1 capital spending estimates have risen from $4bn to $5.6bn; Phase 2 is projected at another $3.5bn, taking total outlay to about $9.1bn.
The open-pit operation is planned to process 45 million tonnes of ore a year at first, rising to 90 million tonnes after Phase 2. Peak construction is expected to need about 7,500 jobs, with around 4,000 permanent roles once the mine is running. Long-term free cash flow over a 37-year life is projected at $74bn under stated commodity assumptions.
Divided views on cost and next steps
A private-sector source active in another Balochistan mining project warned that even a one-year pause could lift costs by $8bn to $10bn. An industry figure with ties to the Reko Diq Mining Company called that range “bordering on absurdity,” estimating a rise of about 10 per cent at most — roughly $450 million to $900 million — and said confidence in a sooner restart had improved in recent weeks.
The same source regretted that the operator reportedly plans to process only 30 to 35 per cent of copper-gold output in Pakistan, with the rest possibly handled at an Australian facility. Separately, Barrick Mining Chairman John L. Thornton is expected in Pakistan later this month for the Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum 2026 in Islamabad, a visit watched as a signal of continued engagement.
Timeline: what has happened so far
- February 2026: Barrick starts a formal review of Reko Diq, slows development and extends assessment into early 2027.
- October 2026 (approx.): At Mining Forum Americas, Barrick’s CEO says full construction needs clearer security improvement.
- Original plan: First production targeted for 2028.
- Current expectation among sources: Full-scale development may resume by mid-2027; production could slip to 2030.
- Later this month (November 2026): Barrick Chairman John L. Thornton is expected at the Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum in Islamabad.
Aasan alfaaz mein
Reko Diq Balochistan ka bada copper-gold mine project hai. Security aur Middle East ke masail ki wajah se pehli production 2028 se 2030 tak ja sakti hai. Barrick abhi review kar raha hai, lekin site par hazaron workers ab bhi kaam par hain. Agar project late hua to mulk ko export aur jobs ka faida bhi der se milega.
