External gap outlook
State Bank chief Jameel Ahmad projected that the current account deficit of Pakistan will hold in a zero-to-one percent band relative to GDP. He framed the call as part of a broader recovery in economic foundations after a painful correction phase.
He made the remarks while addressing ICMA Pakistan’s yearly graduation gathering. In his view, the country has advanced markedly since 2022 even though global and regional shocks remained severe.
Growth, prices and recognition
Ahmad said price pressures in FY26 stayed near the central bank’s preferred band. Readings have moved higher afterward, yet he expects a gradual return toward that band if monetary restraint stays careful.
On output, he noted that real GDP climbed back to 3.7 percent in FY26 after shrinking in FY23. Officials at the bank, he added, look for further gains in the fiscal year now under way. Rating firms, multilaterals and overseas investors are, in his account, already acknowledging the improved resilience.
How stability was rebuilt
Looking back at FY22 and FY23, Ahmad credited swift moves, budget restraint and policy guided by evidence for rebuilding buffers. Keeping the policy rate elevated for nearly a year, plus short-lived controls on non-debt hard-currency outflows, was necessary, he argued, to steady the macro picture and prevent a sharper external-funding and debt crunch.
He warned against chasing quick wins that undermine durability. A positive real policy rate looking ahead, he said, helped pull inflation from above 30 percent into the medium-term band. Risk-based oversight, meanwhile, sharpened early spotting of financial-system threats, and sector strength metrics improved even while rates stayed high.
Message to new accountants
Turning to graduates, Ahmad urged them to put training to work for national development. He pressed them to let evidence shape judgment, ethics shape conduct, and a lasting pledge to inclusive progress shape action. He also stressed how accounting and finance bolster institutions, accountability, careful public spending and productive investment, then congratulated the class.
Timeline: what has happened so far
- FY22–FY23: Authorities raised and held the policy rate for nearly a year and used temporary controls on non-debt FX outflows to restore macro stability.
- FY23: Real GDP contracted.
- From 2022 onward: Ahmad said the economy made notable headway despite harsh global and regional shocks.
- FY26: Inflation stayed near the bank’s target band; real GDP growth reached 3.7 percent.
- After FY26: Inflation rose again; Ahmad expects a gradual drift back toward the target if policy stays prudent.
- Current fiscal year: The central bank anticipates further growth improvement, with the current account deficit of Pakistan seen inside 1% of GDP.
Aasan alfaaz mein
State Bank ke governor ne kaha hai ke Pakistan ka current account khasa GDP ke 1 percent se andar rehne ka imkan hai. Iska matlab yeh hai ke bahar se aane-jane wale paise ka balance behtar direction mein hai. Mehengai pehle bohat oopar thi, ab hadaf ke qareeb laane ki koshish jari hai. Mamooli logon ke liye yeh signal hai ke mehngai aur dollar ke pressure mein kuch thahrao aa sakta hai, lekin mehngai abhi phir thodi barhi hai.
