Winter bills and the fuel surcharge
Pakistan’s Power Division has cautioned that an electricity price increase in Pakistan this winter is likely to arrive mainly through a much higher fuel price adjustment (FPA) — the monthly line on the bill that tracks what generators spend on fuel. Sources linked to the division say that surcharge may climb twofold or threefold from December through February, so those months could become the year’s heaviest for homes and shops.
Why generation looks dearer in the cold months
Those sources link the pressure to costlier LNG, coal and related fuels. Gas piped to power stations is also expected to tighten when temperatures fall — a season when many households already struggle to get enough gas. Hydro output drops in cold weather, so the grid leans more on expensive thermal plants. Elevated international fuel markets would push the monthly adjustment still higher, they said.
In recent months, steps such as scheduled two-hour supply cuts helped keep the surcharge from rising as fast. Since then, global LNG and other fuel quotes have moved up sharply, narrowing that cushion.
September FPA still before the regulator
Separately, the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA), which sets power tariffs, has held back a ruling on a proposed September FPA of Rs2.56 a unit. If cleared, the step would add about Rs32.66 billion to what consumers pay across the country, Karachi included.
At the hearing, Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA) officials put September’s average fuel cost at Rs10.02 a unit, well above the Rs7.46 planners had assumed. Generation spending for the month totalled Rs127.87 billion. Of that, LNG made up Rs31.93 billion, diesel Rs13.26 billion, furnace oil Rs11.81 billion, imported coal Rs37.14 billion, domestic gas Rs13.89 billion and domestic coal Rs7.95 billion. Distribution firms sold 12.76 billion units that month.
The Power Division said that without earlier interventions — including those daily two-hour curtailments — September’s adjustment might have landed near Rs5 to Rs6 a unit rather than the Rs2.56 now sought. How large an electricity price increase in Pakistan households actually see will depend on NEPRA’s September decision and on how steeply the winter FPA climbs.
Timeline: what has happened so far
- September: Average fuel cost reached Rs10.02 a unit against a Rs7.46 projection; generation outlays hit Rs127.87 billion.
- September hearing: CPPA sought an FPA of Rs2.56 a unit; NEPRA reserved judgment. The Power Division said curtailments held the figure down from a possible Rs5–Rs6.
- Recent months: Scheduled two-hour supply cuts helped limit how fast the FPA rose.
- December–February: Division sources expect the FPA to multiply by roughly two to three times as the winter fuel mix shifts.
Aasan alfaaz mein
Power Division ke mutabiq sardi mein bijli ka fuel surcharge do se teen guna barh sakta hai. December se February tak bill zyada bhari ho sakte hain. Mehnga LNG aur coal, kam gas aur kam hydropower is ka sabab bataya gaya hai. September wala Rs2.56 per unit FPA abhi NEPRA ke faisle ka intezar kar raha hai.
