State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmad has said Pakistan’s current account deficit—the gap when overseas payments exceed inflows—is expected to remain between 0% and 1% of gross domestic product (GDP), the total size of the economy. He linked the outlook to stronger economic fundamentals and better external stability after years of adjustment.
He was addressing the annual convocation of the Institute of Cost and Management Accountants of Pakistan (ICMA Pakistan).
Growth, inflation and the external gap
Ahmad said the economy had made significant progress since 2022 despite severe global and regional shocks. Real GDP growth, he noted, recovered from a contraction in fiscal year 2023 (FY23) to 3.7% in FY26, and the central bank expects further improvement in the ongoing fiscal year.
On prices, he said inflation stayed close to the SBP’s target range through FY26. Pressures have increased since then, but he expects inflation to ease gradually toward the target, backed by prudent monetary policy. He also said a positive, forward-looking real policy rate had helped bring inflation down from more than 30% to within the medium-term target range.
How policymakers restored stability
Reflecting on the hard adjustments of FY22 and FY23, Ahmad said timely action, fiscal discipline and evidence-based policymaking had strengthened resilience. Raising the policy rate and holding it for almost a year, plus temporary steps to manage non-debt foreign-exchange outflows, had been needed to restore macroeconomic stability and avoid a deeper external financing and debt crisis, he said.
He stressed that lasting progress cannot rest on short-term fixes that undermine long-term stability. Risk-based supervision, he added, had improved the early spotting of financial-stability risks, and financial-sector performance indicators had improved even while policy rates were high. International credit rating agencies, multilateral partners and foreign investors were recognising Pakistan’s gains, according to the governor.
Message to new accountants
Ahmad encouraged graduating accountants and finance professionals to use their training for national development. “When faced with such decision, let evidence guide your judgment, let professional ethics define your conduct, and let a long-term commitment to Pakistan’s sustainable and inclusive development inform your action,” he said. He congratulated the class and pointed to the profession’s role in accountability, sound use of public resources and productive investment.
Timeline: what has happened so far
- FY22–FY23: Hard economic adjustment; the policy rate was raised and kept high for almost a year, with temporary controls on some non-debt FX outflows.
- FY23: Real GDP contracted.
- Since 2022: Progress despite global and regional shocks, Ahmad said.
- FY26: Real GDP growth reached 3.7%; inflation stayed near the SBP target range.
- After FY26: Inflation has risen again; the governor expects a gradual return toward the target under careful policy.
Aasan alfaaz mein
SBP ke governor ne kaha hai ke Pakistan ka current account deficit GDP ka 0 se 1 percent ke darmiyan rehne ka imkaan hai. Iska matlab yeh hai ke bahar se dollar ki zarurat pehle jaisi tight nahi dikhai ja rahi. Growth FY26 mein 3.7 percent thi aur ab mazid behtari ki umeed hai. Mehngai thori barhi hai, lekin unke mutabiq dhire dhire kam hone ka andaza hai.
