Pakistan's forex reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP, the central bank) surged 52 percent year-on-year to a record USD 21.5 billion in July–September 2026, according to the Ministry of Finance's Pakistan Macro, Reform and Investment Scorecard for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026-27.
Total liquid foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 26.8 billion, providing more than three months of import cover compared with 2.2 months in the same period last year. The rupee appreciated 1.5 percent year-on-year. Separately, SBP Governor Jameel Ahmad said the central bank is targeting about USD 25 billion by end-June 2027 — roughly USD 3.5 billion above levels around USD 21.5 billion now — after first aiming for USD 23 billion by December 2026.
External earnings and investment flows
The scorecard put total exports at USD 11.2 billion, up 11 percent year-on-year, with information technology and technology exports rising 18 percent to USD 1.25 billion. Workers' remittances grew 14 percent to USD 10.9 billion. Foreign direct investment (FDI) increased 20 percent to USD 720 million.
Net foreign investment showed a USD 3.65 billion inflow, against a USD 33 million net outflow a year earlier. Foreign private investment rose 44 percent to USD 691 million, while foreign public investment recorded a USD 2.96 billion net inflow versus a USD 512 million net outflow previously. The current account, however, posted a USD 874 million deficit in the quarter, wider than USD 755 million in the corresponding period last year.
IMF review, ratings and the policy rate
Pakistan reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF, the global lender) on the fourth review under the Extended Fund Facility and the third review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. The scorecard said the deal could unlock an additional USD 1.2 billion once the IMF Executive Board approves it.
Sovereign ratings improved on the scorecard's account: Moody's moved Pakistan from Caa1 to B3, S&P from B- to B, and Fitch reaffirmed B-, all with stable outlooks. The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR, the federal tax body) collected Rs3.1 trillion in the quarter, up seven percent and above the quarterly target, while income-tax return filers rose 45 percent to 5.77 million.
The scorecard said the policy rate stayed at 11.5 percent through September, down from a 22 percent peak in June 2024. At Monday's monetary policy briefing, the SBP raised the rate by 50 basis points to 12 percent, citing a weaker inflation outlook, higher energy prices and risks that geopolitical tensions could lift global commodity prices. The governor said the USD 25 billion reserves path does not include Pakistan's requested USD 10 billion Exchange Stabilisation Support Facility from the United States, and that much of the recent recovery has come from dollar purchases in the market rather than new borrowing.
Domestic activity, debt and what officials flagged next
Large-scale manufacturing grew 1.85 percent year-on-year in July–August 2026. Automobile sales rose 28 percent, petroleum six percent, cement four percent and fertiliser two percent. Private-sector credit reached Rs11.28 trillion in September (up 16.6 percent), SME financing Rs1.14 trillion (up 66 percent) and housing finance Rs365 billion (up 71.9 percent).
Total government debt was Rs86 trillion by August 2026, down Rs714 billion from June 2026; domestic debt was Rs58.8 trillion and external debt USD 98.2 billion. The debt-to-GDP ratio was reported at 68 percent in fiscal year 2026, versus 75 percent in 2022-23. The governor said keeping the pace of reserve building matters for stability, while high global commodity prices, tighter international financial conditions and supply constraints could affect the target. The economy is expected to grow 3.5 to 4.5 percent in the current fiscal year, the SBP said.
Timeline: what has happened so far
- February 2023: SBP reserves had fallen below USD 3 billion, the governor recalled, before the later recovery.
- June 2024: The policy rate peaked at 22 percent, according to the scorecard.
- Fiscal year 2026: Debt-to-GDP was reported at 68 percent; 92 percent of retail payments by volume were digital.
- July–September 2026 (1QFY27): MoF scorecard period — SBP forex reserves at a record USD 21.5 billion; liquid reserves USD 26.8 billion.
- August 2026: Total government debt put at Rs86 trillion; Pakistan had earlier formally sought a USD 10 billion US stabilisation facility.
- October 2026 (Monday briefing): SBP raised the policy rate to 12 percent and projected USD 23 billion reserves by December 2026 and USD 25 billion by end-June 2027.
Aasan alfaaz mein
State Bank ke paas dollar ke zakhayre ab tak ke sab se zyada, lagbhag 21.5 billion dollar, ho gaye hain. Mulk ke paas ab imports ke liye pehle se zyada buffer hai — teen mahine se zyada. Bank ka target June 2027 tak 25 billion dollar ka hai, lekin America se maangi gayi 10 billion dollar ki facility is hisaab mein shamil nahi. Interest rate 12 percent ho gaya hai, is liye naye qarz thode mehange ho sakte hain.
