The Central Power Purchasing Agency-Guaranteed (CPPA-G) has projected that the total power purchase price for calendar year 2027 will fall between Rs3.366 trillion and Rs3.805 trillion. Spread across six scenarios, that works out to Rs25.883 to Rs29.255 per unit, compared with the existing Rs25.32 per unit. The agency submitted the projections to the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA), the regulator, which has scheduled a public hearing on November 3, 2026.
Six scenarios, one range
The CPPA-G built its projections around different assumptions about the main drivers of cost, chiefly electricity demand and the exchange rate between the US dollar and the rupee. Each scenario combines these variables differently to show how changing market conditions could affect what the power purchase price ends up being. The base case assumes demand growth of 2.6 percent and an exchange rate of Rs279 to the dollar, with 130,081 million units sold to the distribution companies, known as DISCOs.
The base case puts the total at Rs3,552,439 million, or Rs27.309 per kilowatt-hour (kWh). Capacity charges, which are payments for keeping power plants available whether or not they generate, come to Rs1,914,445 million in that case. Fuel costs are Rs1,319,119 million, and variable operation and maintenance and service charges make up the rest.
The ideal case, which assumes lower fuel rates, gives the lowest total at Rs3,366,862 million, or Rs25.883 per kWh. The two worst cases both assume a rupee rate of Rs290 to the dollar, with the second assuming higher fuel rates still. Those scenarios total Rs3,750,935 million (Rs28.835 per kWh) and Rs3,805,567 million (Rs29.255 per kWh). A demand scenario at 0.7 percent growth, with 127,937 million units sold, comes to Rs3,527,033 million, or Rs27.568 per kWh.
A scenario that blends cheaper imported liquefied natural gas (RLNG), priced at 15.05 dollars per MMBTU, with domestic gas gives Rs3,439,457 million, or Rs26.441 per kWh. Only the ideal case is lower.
What drives the spread
Capacity charges account for more than half of the total in every scenario, and they are most sensitive to the dollar rate. The filing says they also depend on KIBOR and SOFR, which are benchmark interest rates in Pakistan and the United States, as well as local and international inflation. Capacity charges stay near Rs14.7 per unit in the base case, so their share of the total does not change much from one case to another.
Fuel costs vary the most. They range from Rs8.714 per unit in the ideal case to Rs11.712 per unit in the highest worst case. Low demand also pushes up the per-unit capacity charge to Rs14.960, because the same fixed payments are spread across fewer units.
Points the filing leaves unclear
The document describes the worst case in two ways. In one summary it is set at 0.7 percent growth with Rs290 to the dollar, while the detailed scenarios use 2.6 percent growth. The capacity charge for that case also appears as Rs1,961.598 billion in one place and Rs1,962,004 million in another, a small difference that the figures do not explain.
For context, the existing Rs25.32 per unit is the national average power purchase price for the ongoing calendar year 2026. The same filing puts the national average energy purchase price for that year at Rs8.13 per unit.
What happens next
NEPRA will hold a public hearing on November 3, 2026. The projections are a step in the regulatory process, and the figures can change after the hearing and review.
Aasan alfaaz mein
CPPA-G ne 2027 ke liye bijli ki kharidari ki qeemat Rs25.88 se Rs29.26 fi unit tak hone ka andaza lagaya hai, jabke abhi yeh Rs25.32 fi unit hai. Yeh woh qeemat hai jo distribution companies (DISCOs) bijli khareedne ke liye dengi. NEPRA 3 November 2026 ko public hearing karega, aur final asar us ke baad hi saaf hoga. Aam sarfaaz ke liye iska matlab hai ke bijli ke bills par asar pad sakta hai, lekin kitna, is ka faisla abhi nahi hua.
