The Pakistan GDP growth rate for the outgoing fiscal year, FY26, has been revised down to 3.65%, the government said on Monday. That is slightly below the 3.70% it projected in May, which means the country fell short of its GDP target. GDP, or gross domestic product, measures the total value of goods and services an economy produces in a year. The revised figure was approved at the 118th meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC), held at the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.
Where the slowdown came from
The government attributed the downward adjustment to a mild slowdown in industry and services, the two sectors that pulled the Pakistan GDP growth rate lower. Agriculture grew 3.50% in FY26, up from an earlier estimate of 2.89%. Industry was revised to 3.34% from 3.51%, and services to 3.81% from 4.09%.
Large-scale manufacturing, the measure of factory output, slowed to 5.01% from 6.11%. Electricity fell 10.24%, pharmaceuticals dropped 8.87% and iron and steel products fell 7.84%. Construction, helped by higher public sector spending, improved to 6.30%, while wholesale and retail trade eased to 2.37% from 3.71%.
Size of the economy and incomes
The economy grew in dollar terms to $450.4 billion in FY26, up from $410.96 billion in FY25. Services drove most of that growth, followed by industry and livestock. Per capita income, the average amount earned per person, rose to $1,896 from $1,824, but it remains the lowest in the region. The per capita estimates are based on the 2023 census, and the figure was $1,551 in FY23, $1,766 in FY22 and $1,677 in FY21.
The figures also point to a weaker standard of living. Personal incomes have not risen in any tangible way, the data suggest, because high inflation reduces disposable income, meaning the money households have left after essential spending, and limits their ability to buy goods, save or invest.
How the revision compares with forecasts
The NAC estimate is broadly in line with the outlook of multilateral lenders, though the numbers vary somewhat. The International Monetary Fund projects 3.6% growth for FY26, while the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank each see 3.7%. The State Bank of Pakistan, the central bank, expects growth close to 3.7%. The revised 3.65% therefore sits between the IMF figure and the others.
The committee also approved revised imports data for FY21 to FY25, along with updated quarterly and annual growth rates. Growth in the first three quarters of FY26 was put at 3.89%, 4.31% and 4.42%, and the fourth quarter recorded 2%. FY25 growth was revised to 3.11% from 3.18%.
Aasan alfaaz mein
Pakistan ki maeeshat ki growth FY26 mein 3.65 percent tak nazar-e-sani hui, jo May ke 3.70 percent ke andaze se kam hai. Mulk ka hajam $450.4 billion tak pohncha, aur fi shakhs aamdani $1,896 ho gayi, lekin ye abhi bhi khitte mein sab se kam hai. Mehngai ki wajah se aam logon ki aamdani mein wazeh izafa nazar nahi aata. Is ka matlab hai ke ghar ka bajat aur naukri par asar zyada tar qeemat aur tankhwah se hoga, na ke sirf is aankre se.
