The US midterm elections on November 3 will decide if Republicans hold on to Congress or Democrats win enough seats to challenge President Donald Trump's agenda. Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Democrats would have to gain four seats on balance in each chamber to take over. Control is likely to be settled in a handful of close contests, but the national mood is being set by Trump himself, rising living costs and a sharp dispute over immigration.
Costs, Trump and the campaign trail
Trump has put himself at the centre of the final stretch of campaigning, with rallies planned in Florida, Iowa, Michigan and Texas. A recent Ipsos poll put his approval rating at 31%, an all-time low. He has urged supporters to act as if he were on the ballot, a message meant to energise his base even though it could also push Democrats and independents to turn out against his party.
Cost of living is the issue voters name most often. In a recent Ipsos poll, half of registered voters called it the most important factor in how they will vote, and healthcare, gasoline, food and housing were named as the household bills lawmakers should focus on. Democrats say the president has not kept his campaign pledges on bringing down prices or ending conflicts. If they win a chamber, they say they would push an affordability agenda and press the executive branch over alleged corruption.
Official figures also show prices rising. Pump prices climbed after the February military action against Iran by the United States and Israel. AAA, a motoring group, puts the national gasoline average at $4.28, which is $1.20 above a year earlier, and diesel averages $6.32, up $2.70 from a year ago. Bureau of Labor Statistics data show grocery prices rose 1.8% in the past twelve months, and the Federal Housing Finance Agency recorded a 2.1% rise in home prices over the same period.
Immigration, health and the close races
The top legislative achievement of Republicans was a tax-cut extension that cut roughly $1 trillion from Medicaid, the government health insurance programme for low-income Americans, and other health programmes. Last year, Democrats forced a government shutdown in a fight over health subsidies that had helped 24 million Americans. Their push to extend those payments did not succeed.
Preliminary Department of Homeland Security data show a 95% drop in migrants caught at the southwest border compared with the Biden administration. The department also said there have been no Border Patrol releases across an entire fiscal year, a first. There have also been deadly incidents involving federal immigration agents in Maine, Minnesota and Texas. Two American citizens died in Minnesota, and the backlash pushed many Democrats in competitive primaries further left. Some want then-Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem impeached, while others want Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) abolished.
Republicans then passed, without Democratic votes, a $70 billion package covering ICE and Border Patrol through the end of the president's term, after a standoff over immigration funding. Republicans counter that Democrats support open borders. This month, federal immigration officials carried out a raid at the Washington home of Ilhan Omar, a Democratic congresswoman from Minnesota, and Democrats widely condemned it. A person familiar with the case said one possible goal of the investigation could be taking away her American citizenship and removing her from the country. That claim has not been confirmed by officials.
Artificial intelligence, data centres, cryptocurrency, abortion and Israel could also influence individual contests. In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown has cast Republican Senator Jon Husted as the face of data centres. Meanwhile, a crypto-focused super PAC, an outside political spending group, has put more than $46 million behind Husted's re-election. Brown is a former senator who once led the Senate Banking Committee.
In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson is reminding voters that Republican Senator Susan Collins was part of the Senate vote that seated Brett Kavanaugh on the high court. The court later struck down the federal abortion right, and this is the first time Collins has faced voters since abortion became mainly a state matter.
In Michigan, Republican Mike Rogers has indicated he would accept help from a pro-Israel super PAC. That group put over $30 million into backing Haley Stevens, a Democratic congresswoman, in a primary she lost to Abdul El-Sayed, who now faces Rogers. The group has already spent over $280,000 on mailers against El-Sayed. Trump has also endorsed the re-election bid of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Election day is November 3, and a few contests will likely decide the result. The US midterm elections are about two weeks away, and rallies and fresh polling in the coming weeks will show whether living costs, immigration and Trump's own standing keep pulling voters in different directions.
Timeline: what has happened so far
- February: The United States and Israel began military action against Iran, and fuel prices have risen since.
- Last year: Democrats forced a government shutdown in a dispute over health subsidies.
- Earlier this year: Republicans passed a $70 billion immigration funding bill on their own.
- This month: Federal immigration officials carried out a raid at Ilhan Omar's Washington home.
Aasan alfaaz mein
US mein 3 November ko midterm elections hongay, jin se tay hoga ke Congress par Republicans ka control rahega ya Democrats ko bhi mauqa milega. Ek poll mein Trump ki approval 31% dikhai gayi hai, aur adhay registered voters ke liye mehngai sab se bara masla hai. US mein petrol ki qeemat $4.28 tak pohanch gayi hai, jo ek saal pehle se $1.20 zyada hai, aur kharche ka dabao aam gharoon par parta hai. Pakistan ke jin logon ka khandan, taleem ya kaam US mein hai, unke liye immigration ke faislay bhi aham hain.
