Pakistan’s headline consumer price inflation eased to 9.6% year-on-year in October 2026, down from 10.3% in September, according to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data released on Monday. The consumer price index (CPI)—the official basket used to track the cost of a typical household’s goods and services—had stood at 6.2% in October 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, prices rose 1.1% in October 2026, compared with a 1.3% increase in September and a 1.7% rise in October 2025. The softer year-on-year reading still leaves the overall price level well above last year’s level for the same month.
Urban and rural price trends
Urban CPI inflation increased 9.5% year-on-year in October 2026, down from 10.1% in the previous month and above the 6.0% recorded in October 2025. Month-on-month, urban prices rose 0.8%, slower than September’s 1.3% and below the 1.4% increase seen a year earlier.
Rural CPI inflation rose 9.8% year-on-year, easing from 10.5% in September but remaining higher than the 6.6% reading of October 2025. On a monthly basis, rural prices increased 1.5% in October 2026, faster than September’s 1.2% rise though below the 2.1% jump recorded in October 2025.
How the print compares with forecasts
Days earlier, Pakistan’s finance ministry had projected October inflation in a 9.5% to 10.5% range, citing elevated energy and food prices in line with global trends. In its Monthly Economic Update and Outlook for October 2026, the ministry said the later path of prices would depend on international energy costs, food supplies and base effects—the statistical impact of comparing against a weaker or stronger year-ago period.
The ministry also said the recovery in fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27) was expected to draw support from better crop prospects, selected manufacturing industries, domestic construction activity and expanding external earnings, with a stronger reserve position and wider access to external financing described as more supportive.
Before the PBS release, several brokerage houses had expected Pakistan inflation to ease to around 9–9.5% in October. Topline Securities had projected 9.0–9.50% year-on-year, while Insight Securities had expected about 9.3%. Analysts had also warned that rising fuel and electricity costs could keep price pressures elevated and complicate the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP, the central bank) policy outlook. Topline further said average inflation could exceed 9% in FY27 if oil stayed near $100–110 a barrel, above its earlier 8.5–9% forecast.
Timeline: what has happened so far
- October 2025: Headline CPI inflation stood at 6.2% year-on-year.
- September 2026: Headline inflation was recorded at 10.3% year-on-year (brokerage notes also cite about 10.26%).
- Late October 2026: The finance ministry projected October inflation at 9.5–10.5% amid high energy and food prices.
- Ahead of the PBS release: Brokerages broadly expected a print near 9–9.5%, with Topline at 9.0–9.50% and Insight at 9.3%.
- Monday: PBS data showed October 2026 headline inflation at 9.6% year-on-year, with a 1.1% month-on-month rise.
Aasan alfaaz mein
October 2026 mein Pakistan ki mehngai 9.6% reh gayi, jo September ke 10.3% se thori kam hai. Matlab peechle saal October se ab bhi cheezen lagbhag das percent ke qareeb mehngi hain. Mahine ke hisaab se bhi qeematain 1.1% barhi hain. Energy aur khane ki cheezon ki qeematain ab bhi ghar ke budget par asar dal sakti hain.
